- Monday 29 April 2019
4th Floor Conference Room
- Professor Jane Hutton; Department of Statistics; University of Warwick
- Professor Jake Ansell (to chair Q&A); Chair in Risk Management; University of Edinburgh Business School
This is a joint event with the Royal Statistical Society.
Funded defined benefit schemes which are estimated to have deficits are required to impose deficit recovery payments or change benefits. Current members pay not only for their own future pensions, but also for their predecessors' (and their own) accrued entitlements. It is often assumed that this means younger people paying for older people. However, older generations' pensions contributions have provided productive capital investment and infrastructure used by all ages. Strict intergenerational 'fairness' within a scheme might neglect wider social balance.
Actuarial models require assumptions in order to estimate assets, liabilities, life expectancy and other demographic factors. Multiple assumptions biased away from statistically valid estimates can substantially increase an estimated deficit. Consequences of these assumptions affect not only the particular scheme's stakeholders, but wider society. Money used for deficit recovery payments is diverted away from business investment and dividends. A large estimated deficit can bankrupt a company, and put many people out of work. If pension contributions are tax-exempt, the government's income is reduced.
Professor Jane Hutton, Department of Statistics, University of Warwick will present at 18:30 followed by Q&A with the audience.
Coffee and registration from 18:00. The event will be followed by a networking drinks reception at 20:00.